ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 FACTS & PROJECTIONS : GHANA'S CASE STUDY



FACTS :

834 positive cases confirmed in Ghana, 99 recoveries, 9 deaths out of 60,910 tests done so far. Why are we overreacting in this country as though Covid-19 is a death sentence? There are more diseases that kills everyday than Covid-19 in Africa. Certainly the figures are in our favour. As usual we are affected by anything from the West, we have allowed their western panic over Covid-19 to also affect us. I have warned about 'copy cat' approach in handling Covid-19 which has the tendency of crippling the African economy which I read somewhere yesterday that World Bank has also warned Africans. Let's design strategies that suits us, we should not just lockdown because western countries are locking down. They have a plan in place to sustain their economies. I fear more for our economies than for deaths from Covid-19 the way our leaders are approaching this pandemic. I am not against lockdown but the strategies we have put in place to compliment the lockdown, that is my fear. Businesses may dissolve and unemployment may surge, let's not forget the existing unemployment situation, the financial crisis in the banking sector, Menzgold etc which has not even been resolved.

PROJECTIONS :

Out of 60,910 tests done so far only 834 people are affected representing 1.4%. If all 30,927,496 Ghanaians were to be tested, going by this statistics we will probably have 423,469 people infected which will still represent 1.4%. If out of 834 people, 99 people recovered then for 423,469 people that is projected infection from total population then 50,627 people may recover. If out of 834 infected 9 people died then for 423,469 people 4,569 people may die all things being equal based on calculations. It means the population that may likely be saved by a breakthrough cure or could further die will fall in the range of 418,900 people which is 423,469 projected infections based on population size minus (-) 4,569 projected deaths also based on population size.
So you can even see from the figures that Ghana will not loose so much people to deaths of Covid-19 even if it should spread at the rate it is going now. Over 50,000 (specifically 50,627)people or 400,000 (423,469)people may be cured or recover and over 4,000 ( specifically 4,569) or over 400,000 (specifically 423,469) may as well die considering the population size of 30,927,496. The over 400,000 (which is 423,469) may swing in favour of cure or deaths depending on whether we find a cure in time or not. (These figures like I said are purely projections and not real).

Precisely 98.6% of Ghanaians will still be alive after Covid-19 (100%-1.4%) which is 30,918,358 people (30,927,496-4,569) even if it should get worse based on current statistics. No need to panic even the statistics are in our favour in the face of Covid-19.

Take your time and digest the calculations and projections. I can tell you for sure that Malaria, accidents, Cholera and AIDS has taken or can take more lives than Covid-19. There is hope let us not loose faith. In between the calculations, a cure can surface at anytime and beat down all the adverse figures and increase the recoveries.

#Quaysonthewriter






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